Is The Party Over For PDP

BY WAZIRI ADO

This is self-evident: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), in this general election, is fighting the political battle of its life. For the first time since 1998/1999, the political behemoth of our clime and time is clearly flustered, rattled to its core. With cultivated calm giving way to undisguised panic and supreme confidence displaced by anger, frustration and desperation, PDP has launched a scorched-earth campaign that makes it look more like a despairing challenger than the surefooted ruling party that we used to know.
When PDP was in its prime, its chieftains used to boast about how they would be in power for at least 60 years. They bragged about how PDP would become Nigeria’s PRI, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional, the political party that once ruled Mexico for 71 years at a stretch. The reference to PRI was not totally self-indulgent. In ideology, outlook and in the eagerness to press state apparatuses to political advantage, PDP seemed patterned after the Mexican party.
For one, PRI and PDP share the same colours, arranged in the same order: green, white and red. PRI was the archetypal state party, with totalising influence that made the Peruvian writer and Nobel laureate, Mario Vargas Llosa, describe it as the ‘perfect dictatorship’ and with election results that, in PRI’s heydays, implausibly hovered between 80 and 100 per cent of total votes cast! At some point, PDP was beginning to grow into the PRI profile, with control of the presidency and of more than two-thirds of the states, and with a near absolute majority in the National Assembly in a country which at a time had about 50 political parties.
Until the year 2000, PRI had won 12 presidential elections in a row and PDP, its self-adopted Nigerian offspring, seemed similarly unstoppable. But not anymore. For the first time in its 17-year history, PDP stands a very good chance of not winning the presidential poll. With good luck, PDP may still survive this scare. But even if it does, and except the opposition collapses after the election, it is not inconceivable that the party’s days of unchallenged dominance are surely numbered.
At the moment, PDP has found itself in a very strange and unusual place. And because this once undisputed and undefeated champion is not used to being challenged punch-for-punch, it is fighting badly, appearing frantic, coming across as seriously desperate, and looking mortally scared. How did the almighty PDP come to this pass?
I think three factors have conspired to put PDP on the ropes. Before going into that, let me say that despite misgivings against PDP, the party has made some contributions to political development in Nigeria. I will mention two not-so-obvious areas. More than we give it credit for, PDP has served as a stabilising and unifying force in the country both on account of its size and its spread. The founders of PDP had envisioned a big party, broad enough to blur our fault-lines, expansive enough to house different political tendencies, and strong enough to square up to any destabilising force, including the military. Even when it sometimes poses risks to the polity and has recently lapsed into divisive politics, PDP has largely delivered on this score.
PDP’s other important contribution is that, at different times, it has provided opposition to itself, thereby sparing the country the possible dictatorial excesses of a dominant party in a multi-party democracy. Even when other factors are at play, a PDP-dominated federal legislature has not shied from checking the executive from same party and indeed played a major part in truncating President Olusegun Obasanjo’s tenure-elongation agenda. By allowing internal dissent, PDP is perhaps more democratic than the other parties and has, in this way at least, helped in strengthening our democracy.
That said, let’s return to why PDP is not approaching this election with the usual certainty. The first reason is the gradual but consistent weakening of PDP from within and outside. Partly on account of being a big tent, PDP has always been a house divided against itself, weakened by intense contestations for control and positions, and with limited investment in genuine reconciliation. From the outside, PDP has had a terrible image for a long time. Whether fairly or unfairly, PDP has been twinned with all that ails our democracy: underperformance, impunity, corruption, rigging etc. As said above, this could be an unfair association, but PDP has done little to change this widespread negative perception.
But the combination of internal dissension and unflattering public perception has rendered the party vulnerable over time. A major marker of this vulnerability was in 2011 when the strategists of President Goodluck Jonathan had to distance the candidate from his own party and had to creatively market him as different from and better than his party. That delicate distancing worked magic but this was also an acknowledgement that PDP had more or less become damaged goods in popular imagination. This should have worried the PDP chieftains and pointed them towards critical post-election work. It is not clear anyone paid much attention to this critical task.
This leads us to the second factor that has put PDP at risk: the diminution of the Jonathan mystique. Jonathan’s capacity to compensate for PDP’s perceived deficits has been diminished because Jonathan, in a strange proclivity for scoring own goals, has consistently eroded his own fanatical base in the last four years. At the moment, the bad-party/good-candidate narrative has lost its sheen. A sizeable number of those who ecstatically bought into the “breath-of-fresh-air” line in 2011 started feeling deceived six months down the line and remain disappointed and are either on the fence or have switched allegiance.
For this group, and even some neutrals, there is a long list of disappointments, including: the manner in which subsidy on petrol was removed on 1st January 2012, the demonization of the Occupy Nigeria movement, the handling of the NIS recruitment tragedy, the ‘I don’t-give-a-damn’ and ‘stealing-is-not-corruption’ statements, the state pardon of Chief Diepreye Alamieyesiegha, the subsidy scandals, the bullet-proof cars, the unaccounted oil money, the embarrassing gaffes from the first family, the interference in the Governors’ Forum election, the growing state of insecurity, the handling of the case of the abducted Chibok girls and the harassment of and attack on the #BringBackOurGirls campaigners etc. Overtime, all these have calcified into overwhelming negative emotions that put the 2015-Jonathan in a weaker stead than the 2011-Jonathan, coincidentally at a time the predicted fracturing of his party has come to pass.
The last factor that has put PDP in a strange spot is the emergence of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and of General Muhammadu Buhari as its standard-bearer. APC has reasonable national spread and strong political structures in zones with high percentage of registered voters. Buhari, whose massive following had been restricted to just the north, is now enjoying some serious look-in in some areas and among demographic groups previously uninterested in him. The convergence of these two developments has significantly altered the field of play and provided a viable alternative to politicians looking for a new home and to voters fatigued with PDP’s 16-year rule or disenchanted with Jonathan.
In sum, PDP’s previous competitive advantage is now threatened by the coming together of a weakened and depleted party, a diminished incumbent and a formidable opposition. The behemoth has tried to fight back in different ways, some reasonable, some wrong-headed. Initially, it re-organised, embarked on reconciliation and counter-poaching, took the battle to APC’s strongholds and commenced aggressive marketing of the achievements of its candidate. And for a while, it worked and PDP regained some lost ground. But PDP also expected and even predicted APC to fracture after its presidential primaries. That did not happen.
PDP’s reaction to the failure of APC to fall apart and the emergence of Buhari (who gained extra bounce by picking Professor Yemi Osinbajo as his running mate) is to go on a feverish attack, hoping that something will stick. That may well happen and that may well change the tide. But my sense is that despite all the aggressive investments in history lessons, gratuitous insults, ethnic/religious profiling, morbid obsessions and threats of fire and brimstone, most people are looking at the two candidates comparatively, not idealistically, and have made up their minds on who they think will better serve them. I may be wrong.
What is beyond doubts, however, is that for the first time in 16 years, PDP has an equal chance of winning or losing the presidential election. If it wins, it should congratulate itself, embark on aggressive PR offensive, re-organise and take a cue from PRI on how to prepare for eventualities. PRI’s winning margin declined from 74 per cent in 1982 to 50.7 per cent in 1988, and further plunged to 48.6 per cent in 1994. The party got the message of an approaching end and launched a series of political reforms that opened up the system to ensure that a new ruling party would not be able to unfairly lock out the opposition for decades. PRI eventually lost power in 2000, but was back in 2012 after two election cycles.
If PDP loses this election, it should be both proud and gracious. Proud of having been the dominant party for 16 years and of its contributions to democratisation and development in the country. Gracious by reining in its present desperate impulses and not succumbing to the temptation to pull down the whole house. As the party that has benefited the most from this democratic experiment, PDP should be interested in sustaining it. It should know that even in the best of times, no party lasts forever. It should therefore be ready for the end, and when the inevitable happens, it should exit the stage with a smile and a raised shin. Like PRI, it should provide robust opposition, not hitch on the new wagon, and re-strategize for a comeback. Our democracy will be the better for it.

Culled from THISDAY

Re Buhari: One Nation, Two Moralities

By Prof. Taiwo Osipitan
As the Nation prepares for the February 2015 Election, the educational qualifications of candidates contesting the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, has generated endless controversies. Two Schools of thought are locked in the controversy. The dominant School of thought has asserted loudly and clearly, that a person is not eligible to contest election to the office of the President unless he/she produces a Secondary School Leaving Certificate or its equivalent. It has been and it is still being contended that candidates must possess/produce educational qualification of at least Secondary School Leaving Certificate or its equivalent in order to be eligible to contest the on coming elections. Section 131 (d) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) has been cited in support of the contention by proponents of that view to support their position. The said Section provides:

“131. A person shall be qualified for election to the office of President if-
(a)…                             …                                           …
(b)   …                      …                                           …
(c)  …                           …                                       …
(d) he has been educated up to at least school certificate level or its   equivalent.”
Candidates contesting election to other elective positions must also possess a similar qualification. This is in view of the prescription in other provisions of the Constitution that candidates to elective post must have been educated up to at least school certificate level or its equivalent. Section 177 (d) prescribes that candidates contesting election into the office of State Governor must have been educated up to at least School Certificate Level its equivalent. By virtue of Section 142(2) and 187(2) the provisions on educational qualification of President and State Governors apply to Vice President and Deputy Governors respectively. Section 65(2) (a) and 106(c) of the Constitution prescribes that candidates contesting elections as National Assembly and State House of Assembly members respectively must also have been educated to at least School Certificate  Level.
It is against the backdrop of Section 131 (d) of the Constitution that the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC), has been and is still being invited, to disqualify General Muhammadu Buhari (APC’s Presidential candidate) from contesting the upcoming Presidential Election. It is likely that more requests will be made to INEC to disqualify other candidates, on the same ground of lack of Educational qualification of “school certificate or its equivalent”.
This article seeks to place adequate information at the disposal of all concerned. The article educates further all concerned on the requirements of educational qualifications of persons contesting election to the office of the President and other elective posts in the coming 2015 Election. This article demonstrates, that under the 1999 Constitution, production of Secondary School Certificate or it’s equivalent is not a mandatory requirement of being eligible to contest election into an elective post.
Undoubtedly, Section 131(d) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) prescribes Secondary School Leaving Certificate as the minimum educational qualification of candidates contesting election to the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. It stipulates that candidates must be “educated up to at least School Leaving Certificate Level or its equivalent.”
When the above provision is construed in its ordinary grammatical meaning, persons who do not possess the Secondary School Leaving Certificate or its equivalent are not qualified to contest election to the office of President. In other words, upon a cursory reading of the provision of Section 131(d), it is easy to come off with the impression that unless a person possesses the Secondary School Leaving Certificate or its equivalent (Grade II Teacher’s Certificate, the City and Guilds Certificate), he or she is ordinarily not eligible to contest election to the office of the President of Nigeria. Similar interpretation will be given to other provisions on qualification of candidates in respect of other elective posts/offices.
The above provision must however be read along with Section 318(1) of the said Constitution, which is the interpretation Section. It becomes crystal clear, upon a careful reading of the said Interpretation Section, that even persons whose educational qualifications are below the Secondary School Leaving Certificate/level and its equivalent are still qualified to contest election, if they possess the Primary Six School Leaving Certificate or its equivalent along with the other requirements listed under the said definition Section (Section 318(1)).
For the avoidance of doubt, Section 318(1) provides:

“School Certificate or its equivalent” means –
(a)    a Secondary School Certificate or its equivalent, or Grade II Teacher’s Certificate, the City and Guilds Certificate; or
(b)    education up to Secondary School Certificate level; or
(c)    Primary Six School Leaving Certificate or its equivalent and-
(i)    service in the public or private sector in the Federation in any capacity acceptable to the Independent National Electoral Commission for a minimum of ten years, and
(ii)    attendance at courses and training in such institutions as may be acceptable to the Independent National Electoral Commission for periods totalling up to a minimum of one year, and
(iii)    the ability to read, write, understand and communicate in the English language to the satisfaction of the Independent National Electoral Commission; and
(d)    any other qualification acceptable by the Independent National Electoral Commission;”

There is the need to acknowledge the trite rule of interpretation of Statutes which is to the effect that a Section of a Statute should not be construed in isolation. All Sections in a Statute must be interpreted conjunctively, especially where the Statute has a definition Section, as it is the case with the 1999 Constitution (as amended). Section 131(d) must therefore be construed in conjunction with Section 318(1) of the Constitution which defines the words “School Certificate or its equivalent.”
It is evident from the above definition Section of the Constitution (Section 318(1)), that the meaning of “School Certificate or its equivalent”, for the purpose of Section 131(d) of the Constitution, is very liberal and accommodating. The provision accommodates persons with the Primary School Leaving Certificate coupled with private or public sector experience and who have attended courses and training for periods totalling up to a minimum of one year. Such primary school Certificate holders must also demonstrate ability to read, write, understand and communicate in the English language to the satisfaction of INEC. The definition of “School Certificate or its equivalent” also includes candidates who are educated up to Secondary School Certificate level. These candidates need not produce Certificates evidencing that they passed Secondary School Examination. What they must produce is evidence of being educated up to Secondary School level. This is unlike the other requirement of Secondary School Certificate or its equivalent or Grade II Teachers Certificate, or City and Guilds Certificate under Paragraphs (a) of the definition. The difference between (a) and (b) above is that under (a), production of a Certificate is mandatory. In (b), what is required is evidence of “education up to Secondary School Certificate level ”. While it may well be that production of a Certificate is evidence which proves (b), it is not the only mode of proving (b). Testimonials, Reference Letters and Affidavits are legitimate vehicles of proof that a candidate has been “educated up to Secondary School Certificate level .“ As a matter of fact, the (d) part of the above definition is much more elastic and accommodating. It recognizes “any other qualification acceptable to the Independent National Electoral Commission” as a qualification to contest election to the office of President and other elective posts. It suffices to state that a candidate who relies on (c) must also produce his/her primary school leaving certificate
The provision of Section 318(1) was construed by the Court of Appeal in the case of BAYO v. NJIDDA (2004) 8 NWLR (Pt. 876) page 544 at 629H-630D, where Ogbuagu, J.C.A (as he then was) held:
“The above provisions, are conjunctive and they qualify or mean “school certificate or its equivalent.” So, if any one of them is not present/ available, then, the candidate is out. Therefore, even if (i), (ii), (iii) and (d) are acceptable by or satisfactory to INEC and therefore, cannot be questioned in a tribunal as being final, the absence of (c), also disqualifies the candidate.
I wish to point that unlike the provision in (b)-i.e.
“(b) education up to secondary school certificate level,” or, in (c), it must be the obtaining or possession of a primary six school leaving certificate or its equivalent. It could be observed that in (b) there is no “or its equivalent”.
In other words, as regards a secondary school certificate level one does not have to pass the secondary school certificate examination. It is enough, in my view, that one attended a Secondary school and read up to secondary school certificate level i.e. without passing and obtaining the certificate.
But in the case of (c), one must have passed and obtained the primary six school leaving certificate. It could be seen that the draftsman of these provisions, carefully chose the words.”
Nzeako, J.C.A (as she then was) held at page 619 paras. G-H, in the above case, thus:
“In effect a person seeking to become a candidate for an election to the House of Assembly of any state in the Federal Republic of Nigeria must possess at least one of the qualifications set out in (a) or (b) or (c) (supra)
In the case of (c), he must in the first instance possess, primary six school leaving certificate or its equivalent, (in some states there used to be primary 7 as the final class in Primary school), and in addition evidence of (i), (ii) and (iii) above all together.
It follows that a person who is not educated up to school certificate or its equivalent, may still qualify for election to the House of Assembly of a state if he has primary six school leaving certificate plus evidence or fulfilling every one of the conditions in (i), (ii) and (iii). If the person possesses primary six certificate but fails to provide evidence of any of the above (i), (ii) or (iii), he does not qualify.
In CHUKWU v. ICHEONWO (1999) 4 NWLR (Pt.600) page 587 at 596 paras. B-F, the Court of Appeal was faced with the interpretation of provisions of Section 99(1) of the Local Government (Basic Constitutional and Transitional Provisions) Decree No. 36 of 1998 which contained similar definition of school certificate or its equivalent. In answer to the question, whether a candidate must possess/produce school certificate, in order to satisfy requirement of being educated to the minimum level of school certificate or its equivalent, the court held thus:
“it is erroneous to hold as learned counsel has argued that to satisfy the condition of educational qualification, the candidate must possess a Secondary School Certificate. The interpretation given by the tribunal on this issue of educational qualification is unassailable. I agree that since there is evidence that the 2nd Respondent sat for the School Certificate examinations in May/June 1975, this is sufficient to satisfy the requirement of section 10(c) of the Decree. While acquisition of sound education may be desirable to enable one discharge the functions of Chairman of a Local Government Council, it is not absolutely necessary that such person must possess a Certificate to enable him function effectively.”
The definition Section (Section 318(1)) also vests INEC with powers to determine a candidate’s literacy level. Under Paragraph (b), the capacity in which a candidate served in the private or public sector must be acceptable to INEC.  The courses and training attended by a candidate must also be in Institutions acceptable to INEC. Finally, a candidate’s ability to read, write, understand and communicate in the English language must also be to the satisfaction of INEC.
The key words in the definition Section are “acceptable” to and “satisfaction” of INEC. These words are subjective in the sense that where INEC is satisfied with a candidates training and qualifications or where the qualifications of a candidate are acceptable to INEC, it is doubtful if the decision of INEC can be challenged successfully by a candidate’s opponent. The words “to the satisfaction of” and “acceptable to” , in their ordinary grammatical meanings, acknowledge subjectivity on the part of INEC. The word acceptable is synonymous with being in agreement with, approval, not very good but good enough, welcoming, pleasing, satisfactory, adequate or worth accepting. Satisfaction means a state of being satisfied, that which satisfies, content or pleasing.
From the angle of Law of Estoppel, where INEC has previously been satisfied with or accepted a candidate’s educational qualifications in previous Elections, and allows such a candidate to contest election(s) the same INEC would be estopped from disqualifying the same candidate in future Elections on the ground of lack of educational qualification.
Estoppel prevents a person from blowing hot and cold, approbating and reprobating on an issue. Therefore, where a person makes a representation expecting it to be acted upon, and another person acts on that representation, the former is estopped from resiling from his/her representation. The above principles of Law have been judicially endorsed in the following authoritative Legal decisions.
1.    Ude v Nwara  (1993) 2 NWLR (Pt. 278) Pg. 638 at 662,Para.G -Per Nnaemeka-Agu J.S.C:
“By operation of the rule of estoppel a man is not allowed to blow hot and cold, to affirm at one time and deny at the other, or, as it is said, to approbate and reprobate. He cannot be allowed to mislead another person into believing in a state of affairs and then turning round to say to that person’s disadvantage that the state of affairs which he had represented does not exist at all or as represented by him.”
2.    Jadesimi v Okotie-Eboh; In Re Lessey (1989) 4 NWLR Pt 113 Pg 113 at 125, Para. B – Per Akpata J.C.A.:
“A party cannot be heard to approbate or reprobate. He will not be allowed to base his action or defence, whether by pleadings or affidavit evidence, on a set of facts then depart from the set of facts on which issues had been joined to meet the case of the other side.”

CONCLUSION
It is evident from Section 131(d), read along with Section 318(1) of the Constitution, that a candidate need not produce a Secondary School Certificate or its equivalent Certificate in order to be qualified to contest election into the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria or any other elective post. Candidates who are educated up to Secondary School Certificate level are qualified to contest Elections under the 1999 Constitution. Persons with Primary Six School Leaving Certificate or its equivalent, provided they satisfy the other requirements listed under Paragraph (c) (i), (ii), and (iii) of the definition of “School Certificate or its equivalent ” in Section 318(1) ,are also qualified to contest election into elective offices, including that of the President. Finally, persons with “any other qualification acceptable to the Independent National Electoral Commission” are also qualified to contest election under Paragraph (d) of the definition Section set out above.
The elasticity of the definition of “School Certificate or its equivalent” in Section 318(1) of the Constitution may be questioned against the backdrop of providing a Platform for candidates who lack sound educational background to aspire to elective offices, in a Nation which prides itself with aspirants with sound educational qualifications. The said provision can also be questioned on the ground of the enormous power vested in INEC with regard to being satisfied with a candidate’s educational qualification or the educational institutions/qualifications being acceptable to INEC.
Such query, in my view, can only highlight the need for Law Reform. The query merely raises issues of the Law as it ought to be. However, from the view point of the Law as it is, A candidate whose educational qualifications/institutions attended are acceptable to INEC and who is educated to a level which is satisfactory to INEC, is eligible to contest Election to elective offices/posts in Nigeria is the upcoming February 2015 Election.
–– Prof. Taiwo Osipitan, SAN. Faculty of Law University of Lagos

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The Opinions in this article are the Author’s and do not reflect Sayelba Times’ Editorial Policy

@AtedoPeterside The Ugly side of Buhari and Jonathan

by Atedo Peterside @AtedoPeterside

“This election will therefore not be decided by the loyalists. It will be called by the large number of undecided voters (these are the swing voters) and they have one thing in common – they do not like GEJ, but then they do not like Buhari either (they want change but see Buhari as the type of change that is both alarming and worrisome).

 

In such circumstances, efforts by both candidates to sell themselves forcefully to their core constituencies may simultaneously alienate the swing voters. When Hausa/Fulani elders and/or retired Generals and Muslim leaders shout forcefully that Buhari must have it, the rest of the nation recoils in horror. The same thing happens when misguided elements from the South-South zone and Christian leaders insist that their zone (or a Christian) must have two full terms in Aso Rock. The truth is that the Presidency is not anyone’s birthright and so it is naive and downright foolish to go down that route. Indeed some of these bold declarations by core supporters are akin to a kiss of death with swing voters.”

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Opinion polls commissioned by ANAP Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls (using Gallup methodology) show that President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and his main challenger, Major-General Mohammadu Buhari (Buhari) are currently running neck-to-neck in the 2015 Presidential race. The difference between them in terms of potential votes nation wide is statistically insignificant because it is dwarfed considerably by the much larger percentage of voters who remain “Undecided” – and so the race is truly too close to call.

This election will therefore not be decided by the loyalists. It will be called by the large number of undecided voters (these are the swing voters) and they have one thing in common – they do not like GEJ, but then they do not like Buhari either (they want change but see Buhari as the type of change that is both alarming and worrisome).

In such circumstances, efforts by both candidates to sell themselves forcefully to their core constituencies may simultaneously alienate the swing voters. When Hausa/Fulani elders and/or retired Generals and Muslim leaders shout forcefully that Buhari must have it, the rest of the nation recoils in horror. The same thing happens when misguided elements from the South-South zone and Christian leaders insist that their zone (or a Christian) must have two full terms in Aso Rock. The truth is that the Presidency is not anyone’s birthright and so it is naive and downright foolish to go down that route. Indeed some of these bold declarations by core supporters are akin to a kiss of death with swing voters.

Buhari publicly declared in 2011 that he will not contest again. Jonathan is said to have privately declared in 2011 that he would only stay for a single term. Let us therefore assume that they have both broken their word by contesting in 2015 and so there is little to be gained with the swing voters by dwelling on this.

Swing voters are moved more by what they do not like about either candidate. At the end of the day therefore they will vote “against” the candidate that they dislike more and their collective actions will determine who wins. That is why this article focuses on the ugly side of Buhari and GEJ and not on their strengths.

Many of the swing voters are upset. They feel that our two major political parties have “cheated” them by forcing them to choose between the devil and the deep blue sea.

During the course of the 2014 National Conference, where I was a delegate, I made a contribution to the effect that past military rulers, who toppled democratically elected governments, should still be tried for treason so as to serve as a permanent deterrent to young and ambitious military officers who will then understand that the long arm of the law may get them even in their old age and even after they claim to have repented. Buhari dethroned a democratically elected government in order to become a military head of state at the end of 1983. Many of the swing voters are true democrats who abhor authoritarianism. Buhari was not a benevolent dictator either. He was a vicious and wicked one who used retroactive decrees to sentence youths to death and to jail journalists who dared to publish the whole truth. Can the leopard shed it’s spots overnight as some would have us believe?

Wickedness and callousness are not matters of style and/or fashion they are a reflection of a real personae. Buhari’s unguarded utterances about him supporting the institution of sharia nationwide and his “famous” statement that Muslims should only vote for Muslims and his threat that the baboon and the dog will be soaked in blood if elections were rigged are all consistent with his unelectable personae, hence his persistent search for devout Christians (with little or no political clout) as Vice Presidential candidates while he is on the campaign trail. Is he simply hanging on to political lightweights that he knows he can devour the day after he gets elected?

On the economy, Buhari was a disaster first time around. He was clearly an economic illiterate and thought he could run the complex Nigerian economy by controlling rations as was done in a military cantonment. He placed everything under import licence and empowered some individuals under him to prescribe what quantity of every good Nigeria needed and also sought to prescribe which individuals would import the item and in what quantity. Ignorance was on display all around and it was exploited through massive racketeering by persons in his government who called the shots. That he was deemed to be personally honest became irrelevant and so many of us cheered when ‎soldiers (not known for honesty) put him out of his misery by kicking him out of office in less than 18 months and before he could torture the nation any further.

GEJ is unliked by many because he is seen as being weak and unable to control the excesses of some of his close aides and party chieftains. ‎YES, he eventually stood up to ex-President Obasanjo (who tries to dictate to every serving President), but then who wouldn’t? All future Presidents (including those unborn) now know to avoid Obasanjo like a plague. What manner of ex-President will divulge details of his one-on-one meeting with a serving President to the general public ( in a book), without getting the latter’s prior consent?

NO, GEJ’s vulnerabilities are from the party chieftains and a few dodgy aides that he accommodates and/or tolerates. He also believed too much in assurances from our Security Agencies, Defence Ministers, Chiefs of Defence Staff, National Security Advisers etc. This entire group have lost credibility in the fight against Boko Haram. His most recent utterances suggest that he has realised now, how deadly Boko Haram are, but it is rather late in the day as the elections are a little more than a couple of weeks away. My own position on Boko Haram (BH) has remained consistent. The entire Nigerian elite continue to under-estimate BH at our peril. I would love to wish them away, but history and my head tell me that, like Colombia’s Farc Rebels, BH will still be around in some form or the other for decades.

Presidents who aspire to have a second term in Nigeria face this paradox; ‎if they stand up to all the party Chieftains, over-bearing Governors and Security Chiefs, they will not get re-elected because the Party will throw up a Challenger. If they succumb to this motley/unholy lot, they will slow down economic reform, secure their Party nomination but alienate swing voters nationwide.

The only reason for the swing voters to vote for GEJ therefore is if he can convince them that he will be able to free himself from this motley crowd next time around. Afterall, a second Presidential term is a final term and nobody (except Obasanjo) will ever dream about a third term. ‎In effect, GEJ must convince swing voters that, if they give him a second term, he will be man enough to bite many of the grubby hands that lurk around the higher echelons of his party.

Further complexities in the Presidential race arise because some of the ambitious and highly ‎educated politicians from the North East (in particular) do not want an ageing and not so capable Buhari to ascend a throne which they aspire to occupy in 2019. Buhari was rejected consistently by some of his newer supporters when he was younger and more capable. Ironically, the older and less capable he becomes, the more he appeals to them because they hope to usurp his authority. He has agreed to be dressed up in sheep’s clothing now, but they should beware of the wolf in sheep’s clothing. They might be shut out of Aso Rock if he wins.

Ironically, if these power brokers (who are not known for honesty) come out now to publicly affirm that they will have continuing relevance if Buhari wins, then again the swing voters get turned off because they see corrupt persons surrounding an old and infirm “honest” man who is driven by a blind ambition to re-occupy a seat from which he was booted out prematurely in 1985, even though he recognises that he is not clever enough to understand 21st Century economic and financial transactions through which some of his new and unscrupulous friends hope to loot and/or corner the national treasury under his lazy and ineffective watch.

GEJ has also gathered all sorts of renegades unto his campaign ship. The enemies of his enemy have all become his friends overnight. They are strange bedfellows. In his second term (if he wins) he will need to cut off many of these hangers-on. If he does that they will try to resist, but a second term President is hard to bully. GEJ needs to convince the electorate that he can continue with his bold agricultural sector reforms, his power sector roadmap, overhaul and reform of the transportation sector (beyond the celebration of token and/or paltry railway services) etc.

GEJ’s biggest failure on the economic front was his inability to introduce ‎earth-shaking reforms to trim our recurrent expenditure budget at the Federal level by instituting the massive lay-off of idle civil servants. He did not confront the National Assembly either on this thorny issue. Ironically many of those who accuse him of guilt in this area are guilty of the exact same allegation in their respective States and Local Government Areas.

I am sad that GEJ did not simply go all out to ‎transform our economy in his first term at the risk of being a single term President. Instead he slowed down on some economic reform because he was pandering to power brokers within his political party, who would have a say in helping him to secure a second term.

I am sad that an ageing and incapable Buhari refused to play the role of a King-maker by identifying a single well educated and well meaning younger person 2 or 3 years ago (even if he narrowed his search to his own North West zone) whom he could have groomed and backed to challenge GEJ.

If I vote for GEJ in this election it is because his ugly side is less ugly than Buhari’s known and well-documented uglier side and nothing more. If you disagree with me please note that there is no need for us to fight – our only weapon should be the ballot paper and how we decide to cast it. Those who think they can intimidate swing voters, by threatening mayhem if their candidate does not win a close election, do their candidate a massive disservice because their careless utterances send the swing voters in the opposite direction in a race that is currently too close to call.

Before anybody dismisses ANAP Foundation’s opinion polls again, let me add that similar polls commissioned concurrently by us (using the exact same methodology) show Nasir El-Rufai of the APC with a significant lead over the incumbent PDP Governor (Yero), while the PDP’s Nyesom Wike currently leads APC’s Dakuku Peterside in Rivers State, but there is a large “undecided” element in Rivers State.

ANAP Foundation will ‎release more information on all the Polls we commissioned (including Lagos Governorship) over the course of the next few days, using a multitude of media channels.
(Twitter @AtedoPeterside)

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The Opinions contained in this article are the Author’s and do not reflect Sayelba Times’ Editorial Policy

THIS IS MY STAND – By Asari Dokubo

 

Mujahid Dokubo-Asari

 

It has become the modus operandi of the Gambaris and their recruited collaborators, who style themselves as opposition All Progressive Congress APC, to turn every statement made by me and other Ijaw leaders around; distort its true meaning, context and intent or use it for mischief.

I want to state categorically that as Ijaws, we have never been afraid of war nor have we ever run away from war. War is part of the cultural antecedence of the Ijaw man. So those who are planning war against us should prepare very well. They can go and ask the British their experiences with us.

The last meeting which outcome have been misrepresented and doctored, held recently, when we gathered at Yenagoa, to reflect on the state of the Nigerian state. It wasn’t only the Ijaw nation that was at the meeting; but a broad spectrum of nationalities in the Niger Delta. The group was also made up of vast numbers of our dedicated combatants, who have been tested in battle, are battle ready, and proven themselves in battles, and who the Nigerian Military (Armed Forces) and its government, under the then Gambari Late President Umar Musa Yar’Adua, tried to blindfold and bribe, albeit unsuccessfully, with our own money and huge resources gotten from our soil; which some of us saw through, as a perfidy, and rejected outright as a cheap bribe and blackmail.

Our recent meeting in Yenagoa, was to show unflinching solidarity, with our brother, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan, President and Commander-In-Chief of the Nigerian state, and ruminate over the recent attacks on his person, campaign team and supporters, that we found heinous and unacceptable, as it has become the style of the ever blood-thirsty Gambaris, in the northern part of the Nigerian state. We warned in our recent meeting that if this intolerable trend of unguided attack continues, we will retaliate disproportionately, as we have every right to protect our lives, the lives of our people; and insure the safety of our communities and livelihood.

At the said meeting, whose recordings are available, even posted on my face book page; nobody among the speakers, spoke or imagined that President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan will lose his re-election. To us, his victory is a forgone conclusion. We are only concerned with the current spate of attacks on his person, and repeated warning on the consequences of a repeat of the mass murder, killings and massive destruction of properties occasioned by the aftermath of the 2011 election, for which numerous envoys have visited Nigeria in recent days. That the principal actor, in that genocidal post 2011 election violence project, General Muhammedu Buhari had warned, in unmistaken language that if what happened in 2011 election (which means a victory of President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan), should repeat itself in 2015, the ‘bamboos and the dogs,’ will be soaked with blood on the street. We know that this statement shouldn’t be taken lightly, as an ominous cloud of unjustifiable hate, violence and attacks have begin to trail the Gambaris genocidal script. As it has been the tradition of the bloody Gambari north, to always think they have the monopoly of violence; and that others cannot respond. I however want to state unequivocally, and without missing words that our response to the recent attacks on President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, will be disproportionate.

There was no communiqué issued at the Yenagoa meeting. My comrade and I spoke at length, and no one said President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, will lose his re-election bid. Our position at the meeting was that President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan has won his re-election bid already. We are only waiting for the announcement of his historic victory by the INEC. So anybody twisting our position at this crucial moment of the Nigerian state is at liberty to do so. If however such foolhardy people believe that by twisting our position, they will cow the Ijaw nation and her leaders, they are making a grave mistake. As such arm-twisting, misrepresentation of truth, fact and reality on ground, has always strengthened and fully emboldened us. Today, the Gambaris have lived amongst us for over a century and have never been attacked, molested or intimidated by us…not because of our weakness but because of our high regard for human life and dignity.

As a result of the looming crisis that may likely erupt out of the Gambari’s unwavering script of violence… we hereby call on our people, where ever they are, to return home. As we will not be held accountable for whatsoever happens to them in any eventuality. We all know it is the tradition of the Gambaris to instigate blue murders and mass destruction of the legacies and properties of their innocent victims who maybe living in their areas, in furtherance of their genocidal intents.

We therefore reinstate that to be fore-warned is to be fore-armed. Even as we want to through this rejoinder, bring to the notice of the world that we have not initiated clashes, violence or any attacks on any APC campaign vehicle, APC campaign team, neither has any vehicle been burnt in any state where Ijaws are domiciled. General Muhammedu Buhari, Presidential candidate of the APC, campaigned in Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Ondo states and there were no incidence of any attack or violence in these states.

Today, the unseemly is happening. Gambaris in both in the APC and PDP, are said to have joined forces to humiliate, abuse, threaten and stone President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan, in Gambari states like Katsina and Bauchi. They burnt a vehicle of Mr. President’s campaign organization; openly molested and maimed his supporters in Zamfara. They physically attacked and burnt the vehicles of Mr. President’s campaign organization in Sulejah, Niger state, in Gombe, Jos and many other states. The intimidation and attack on Mr. President becoming a recurrent decimal.

The world should be notified once more by this rejoinder that those who may have sympathy for the colonial, feudalistic and apartheid tendencies of the Gambari invaders from Futa D’jalon, in Guinea; should know that no colonial occupation, oppression and intimidation last for Ever. History is replete with this realism. Ancient Rome died; Persia died, the sun has now set on the British Empire. Sultan Attahiru I, of the Gambaris was brutally killed by invading British Forces. Just yesterday the Gambaris were chased out of Central African Republic, by the anti-Balakas. It is God who raises up one and brings down another. God has never been unjust in His dispensation of justice, equity and freedom of the oppressed. We believe and trust in the Almighty God that in this battle between good and evil; victory will be on the side of good ; between light and darkness;victory will be on the side of light.

The world should know through this timely rejoinder that we have never initiated violence nor have we shied from violence. The world should therefore caution the violent excesses of the Gambaris. The world should know and understand the truism that it is only natural, and it is trite law that for every action, there must be equal and opposite reaction. We promise however that we will not only give an opposite and equal reaction; but will give a firm and disproportionate reaction.

Lastly, I want to re-instate that at the Yenagoa meeting, nothing was said about President Gooodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan, losing his re-election bid. Our position is, was, if; and shall be – that if there are further attacks on the person of President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan or his campaign team, by the Gambaris, we will respond disproportionately.

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The Opinions in this piece are the Author’s and do not reflect Sayelba Times’ Editorial Policy

Assessment of Jonathan

By Akin Osuntokun

 

There is before me a legitimate and compelling request. And that is the presentation of the performance score sheet of President Goodluck Jonathan. But since I have identified myself as a partisan witness, I decided that the evaluation of Jonathan is more credible if given by objective third parties and they don’t come more credible than the British House of Commons, Brookings Institution and the Transparency International (TI) or do they?

From The Library of The British House of Commons

Jonathan’s record in office
When President Jonathan took office in 2011, he promised a ‘Transformation Agenda’ for Nigeria. What is his record in office?

On the positive side:
Nigeria has consistently averaged over 7% real annual GDP growth under his watch. This has led some to view the country as an emerging economic giant.
The restive Niger Delta has been relatively peaceful. He has continued to support the Niger Delta Development Commission, created in 2000, but also announced in April 2014 a ‘Presidential Initiative for the North East’, which is intended to promote development in that conflict-affected area.
He has not engaged in any frontal attacks on the formal institutions of democracy and in some cases – such as INEC and the National Human Rights Commission – backed strengthening them.
He has signed Freedom of Information and National Health Bills into law and created a Sovereign Wealth Fund.
He also has significant infrastructural achievements to his name.
In 2014, he commissioned a ‘National Conference’ to come up with proposals to transform Nigeria for the better in future.
Nigeria’s Ebola outbreak was handled effectively.

On the negative side:

Nigeria’s domestic security situation has dramatically deteriorated, with the state until recently appearing relatively unconcerned about it.
The government’s response to the kidnapping by Boko Haram in April 2014 of 270 schoolgirls in Chibok, Borno State, was widely criticised for its complacency – similar accusations have been made since then.
The security forces continue to commit serious human rights abuses. Corruption remains pervasive.
The Sovereign Wealth Fund mentioned above is yet to start operating effectively.
Promised reforms – for example, opening up the petroleum and power sectors to private ownership and investment – have proceeded slowly, if at all.
Progress towards meeting the Millennium Development Goals has been patchy.
Nigeria remains a major importer of refined fuel and the country still suffers from chronic fuel and power shortages. A 2012 attempt to end the subsidy on fuel was partially reversed following large-scale street protests.

Brookings institution

On President Jonathan’s performance:
“Despite Boko Haram—the country is thriving: The economy continues to grow and with the rebasing of its GDP—became the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world. Jonathan’s supporters also point to his success in containing the Ebola virus, which earned him commendations from countries and institutions around the world.”

Transparency International

“Global perception of the anti-corruption battle in Nigeria got a modicum of approval, recently, after the global anti-corruption body, Transparency International, TI, moved the country four places up in its yearly ranking (and thirty-eight places from the most corrupt country designation of 2003) of public sector transparency.
Nigeria’s 139 ranking was up from the 143rd position the country was ranked last year, according to the TI ranking released a few weeks ago.
Now I am not excited at this mixed report but that is precisely what it is — mixed report — dramatically different from the censorious dismissal of Jonathan by oftentimes conniving media and partisan intelligentsia as a complete failure and absolutely ‘clueless’ leader to whom any other Nigerian rival contender (no matter how obtuse, mendacious and dangerously bigoted) is preferred.

CRY, BELOVED NATION

The late Chiefs Obafemi Awolowo, Adekunle Ajasin, Ajibola Ige and Olabisi Onabanjo — all direct victims of Buhari’s tyrannical visitation — would be bewildered and hard put to understand the politics of Yoruba land today with particular reference to the portrayal and marketing of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, as a new political icon.
The melodramatic qualification is to say that these personalities would turn in their graves. And this is despite the anguished prompting of our collective institutional memory by the globally acclaimed scholar and Yoruba gift to the world of wisdom and understanding, Professor Wole Soyinka.
This time around, Buhari has had two significant opportunities to indicate his disposition towards the sensibilities of the Yoruba people and on both occasions his actions spoke louder than words.
I put the question to his most passionate supporters — would it be appropriate for the APC candidate to express regret or remorse over the fate suffered by the late Chief Awolowo at the hands of his military junta in 1984-85-when he visited the Awolowo matriarch in Ikenne? Of course, he did no such thing, despite the fact that his running mate, Professor Yemi Osinbajo (whose name he could not even pronounce correctly. He called him Osinbade!) is married to Awolowo’s granddaughter.
In tandem with his ‘first without equal’ status in the hierarchy of Yoruba traditional rulers, the Ooni of Ife is the custodian of the spiritual and primal origins of the Yoruba. Along with the late Emir of Kano, the Ooni Okunade Sijuade, Olubushe II, was humiliated with the impoundment of his international travelling passport and confinement to Ile-Ife for six months for visiting Israel by the Buhari-led junta.
Buhari held his presidential election campaign rally in Osun State about a week ago and the remarkable omission of that campaign tour was his failure to pay a customary courtesy visit to the Ooni. Even if he felt no remorse for the contemptuous treatment meted to the foremost traditional ruler under his iron fisted rule, doesn’t the symbolic embodiment of the Yoruba deserve this elementary courtesy and respect? How would it be received, if, reciprocally, an APC presidential candidate of Yoruba origin were to similarly snub the Sultan of Sokoto?
Yet the blame is not totally Buhari’s, if I were in his shoes, that despite his trademark disdain and disregard for other peoples sensibilities, he could still command the hero worshipping of some political leaders of the South-west, the chances are I may not be aware I did anything wrong. As the Yoruba adage goes — If you sell your kith and kin cheaply, do not expect others to rate him highly.
In this political season, I insist that the Yoruba are being sold short to the APC. Before the political party was consummated, the Yoruba were near unanimous in the desire and aspiration for the restructuring of Nigeria towards decentralisation and devolution of powers from the centre to the states, zones and regions.
The opportunity to advance this cause materialised some months ago with the convocation of the National Conference by President Goodluck Jonathan. And then the South-west faction of the APC suddenly developed cold feet and aversion towards the prime time platform to frontally re-table this priority and long held objective.
The embarrassing spectacle was such that while the godfathers were declaiming the Conference, the godson, Afenifere renewal group (AFR), was the most passionate canvasser of the Yoruba irreducible minimum demand of regionalism at the gathering.
And to what do we attribute this awkward summersault if not the deference of Yoruba APC leaders to the contrary wishes and beckon of their new political icon. I refer readers to the response of Buhari to the issues of restructuring and resource control in interviews he recently granted. In one of them he mocked ‘what is resource control… who is to control what’? The irony here is that there is an element of truth to the below stated observation made by a columnist with the Vanguard newspaper.
“With all the noise currently being made about Buhari’s candidacy, one important point is often overlooked: Buhari is not even well-liked by his own people. A lot is made of the 12 million votes he obtained from the North in 2011, conveniently forgetting that Goodluck Jonathan also obtained a sizeable eight million votes from the same North. Indeed, in 2011, Goodluck Jonathan won 428,392 votes in Buhari’s home-state of Katsina; to Buhari’s 1,163,919. That means Jonathan won 37% of the votes in Buhari’s backyard.”
He canvasses further “It is also instructive that in the primary election for the APC presidential candidate, Northern delegates did not vote for Buhari. Instead, they gave their votes to Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar. Delegates from Buhari’s North-west voted for Kwankwaso, while those from the North-east voted for Atiku. Buhari’s votes came primarily from the South-west, as well as from the South-east and the South-south.”
Beyond the persecution complex motivated (Buhari-personified) vengefulness of his Northern underclass supporters, there is a modicum of truth to the assertion that ‘Buhari is not even well liked by his own people’. And it could not have been otherwise. They don’t come more loyalist than one of his most dedicated lieutenants who lies abandoned for years to the fate of his terminal illness. He is just one of many.
Permit me to share with you the following transmission (catechism) from Mohammed Abacha:

“Buhari… the Change We Don’t Need”

• I have never seen any school built in his name. I have never seen any borehole constructed by him.
• There is no record of any scholarship awarded by him or for him nor through him.
• I have never seen him use his popularity to canvass for any charitable work nor any humanitarian effort, not even at the height of the polio scourge where other purposeful and prominent leaders led the campaign for immunisation.
• No single text book has been donated to any school either by him, for him or through him.
Asides from doing nothing for others, he has not even improved himself since his exit from office.
• No book written, no memos, no lectures, nothing!
• The only thing of note he can point to are his numerous interviews on the BBC Hausa station.
• He never championed for a university in his state nor has he ever been involved in any kind of development programme to better the lives of the Almajiris in Daura.
• His entire existence has not led to any meaningful development in Daura, yet they say he can change Nigeria.
Doesn’t charity begin at home anymore?”

 

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The opinions expresses in this piece are the Author’s and do reflect Sayelba Times’ editorial policy

EXPLOSIVE: WHY BUHARI HAS NO CERTIFICATE: – Col. Ben Gbulie (rtd)

More light have been thrown on the controversy surrounding the APC presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari and his release of a Toronto certificate to online media instead of INEC by Col. Ben Gbulie (rtd)’s scholastic narrative.

 

The situation in Nigeria pre and post Independent where unqualified people are favoured against the qualified, made it impossible for due process to be followed by Northerners who wanted to join the army or high institutions.

 

Buhari joined the army in 1962 and less than 2 months to this date, he has a letter claiming to be a student. He was six months in Military training school and went to UK and stayed six months for 3 years course, there was no time in record that Buhari went back to college to complete his secondary school.

 

According to Col. Ben Gbulie (rtd) writing, “By 1960, shortly after Nigeria’s independence, the Prime Minister, Alhaji Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, had directed the Principal of King’s College, Lagos, Mr. P.H. Davies, to provide places, annually, for at least 15 boys from the North, whether or not they passed the requisite regular entrance examination.” – Col. Ben Gbulie (rtd) in “Nigeria’s Five Majors” p. 36, published first in 1981.

 

“In an attempt to catch up militarily with the South, the Northern politicians had thrown out all discretion. They had lowered standards of admission drastically, settling for the minimum. For as I recalled, all the Northerners in my intake had been trained at the Mons Officer Cadet School in Aldershot. And they had become officers after barely six months of military training, whereas those of us who had been sent to Sandhurst had had to do two long years to earn the Queen’s Commission. The implications were quite clear – and most disturbing. Not only had these Northerners become commissioned officers before we were half-way through our first year at Sandhurst, they had all risen to the enviable rank of Captain before we could even appear at the sovereign’s parade which served essentially as a prerequisite for our passing out as Second Lieutenants.” — Col. Ben Gbulie (rtd) in “Nigeria’s Five Majors, pages 12 – 13, Published 1981.

 

“By 1964 a group of young Nigerian officer-cadets, mostly Northerners, had been declared academically unfit and hence repatriated by the Canadian military authorities. These cadets were however pronounced commissioned by the Nigerian Federal Government no sooner than they

had arrived at the Ikeja Airport. Consequently they had had to be absorbed into the Nigerian Army as commissioned officers, even though they had received no requisite military training.” – Col Ben Gbulie (rtd) in “Nigeria’s Five Majors” page 13, published 1981.

 

“Zak (Maimalari) had held the rank of Captain in 1960. But before my return from the United Kingdom in 1963, he had soared to the top rank of Brigadier. In other words, he had risen from Captain to Temporary/Major, to Substantive/Major, to Temporary/Lieutenant-Colonel, to Substantive/Colonel and then to Brigadier, all within that short span of time. It was just scandalous”.

 

It is a shame that Buhari entered the Army with a false document and not meeting the prerequisite and insisting on contesting for the 2015 presidential election, knowing fully well that he has no secondary school certificate.

 

If Buhari is man enough, let him submit the doctored ‘school certificate’ to INEC or any government department and he will earn himself a ticket to prison.

 

Nigeria Must not be drawn back to another mediocre, his joke is getting out of hand.

 

POSTSCRIPT:  HAROLD SMITH – BRITISH COLONIALIST’S CONFESSION

 

”The north was seriously encouraged to go into the military. According to him, they believe that the south may attend western education, but future leaders will always come from military background. Their traditional rulers were to be made influential and super human. The northerners were given accelerated promotions both in the military and civil service to justify their superiority over the south. Everything was to work against the south. We truncated their good plan for their future. “I was very sorry for the A.G; it was a great party too much for African standard. We planned to destroy Awolowo and Azikwe well, the west and the east and sowed a seed of discord among them”. We tricked Azikwe into accepting to be president having known that Balewa will be the main man with power. Awolowo has to go to jail to cripple his genius plans for a greater Nigeria.”Looking at the northern leaders now , If they have any agenda in Nigeria at all, sadly it is only for the north, and nothing for Nigeria….”

 

http://haroldsmithmemorial.wordpress.com/tv-interview/     “Study the

past if you would define the future.” – Confucius;  “Those who cannot

remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” -George Santayana

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The opinions expressed in this article are the Author’s and do not reflect the Editorial Policy of Sayelba Times.

Nigeria’s Plea for Support

To the Editor:

Re “In Nigeria, the Terror Continues” (editorial, Jan. 18):

Terrorism is a global threat, and its defeat requires a global effort. And while the Nigerian government appreciates the help we have received from our allies, our efforts to procure arms commensurate with this high-stakes battle (including a shipment of Cobra helicopters from Israel) have been thwarted.

You suggest that we lack the will to fight this war. But all the will in the world won’t suffice without the firepower to back it up.

Yet despite the setbacks, our armed forces are making marked progress against Boko Haram, including repelling a major attack just days ago on the strategic town of Biu. But we cannot win this fight alone, just as Western powers cannot win against the Islamic State and Al Qaeda alone.

We must work together to equip our security forces to defeat these depraved terrorists and bring to an end the suffering caused by this conflict.

In the meantime, the Nigerian government will continue providing comprehensive humanitarian relief to the families displaced by Boko Haram in the northeast and securing safe schools for our children.

We do not need an abrupt leadership change when we are in the middle of a war. What we need, in our time of need, is backing from our friends in the international community for whom Nigeria (and its peacekeeping forces) has provided loyal, ample support over the years and decades.

MIKE OMERI

Chief Coordinating Spokesman

National Information Center

Abuja, Nigeria, Jan. 18, 2015

NYTIMES

Between Buhari and Obama

By Akin Osuntokun

“When you were going to become the manager of PTF. We talked about it and when you finished and I took over, we looked into it. “I haven’t said this publicly, I would say it publicly now. When we looked into it, there was really nothing amiss except that that organisation went from road building to mosquito net-buying and all sorts of things. “And what the investigation discovered is a bit of inconsistency in prices and all that. In one area, mosquito net might have been given for N50; in another, N45. And I then remarked that this is fishy. We should look into it”.

“And I called my brother and colleague (Buhari), I said see this and he said ‘look we are managing billions of naira and I tried to make sure I see everything. But I will not say that what they have said about this is correct or not correct. But I can assure you, I tried to see everything.’ I said okay Muhammadu, between me, you and God, was there any personal benefit for you? And you said ‘no.’ I said that is the end of the matter”.

The above excerpts were the remarks former President Olusegun Obasanjo made on the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) controversy when the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, General Mohammadu Buhari, visited him at Abeokuta some days ago. I have recalled them to establish a number of points.

First is factuality – to report exactly what Obasanjo said especially against the background that the header (by the Punch newspaper – where I read the report) ‘I Found Nothing After Probing Buhari’s PTF” is misleading. He indeed found something ‘fishy’.

This is the second significant misleading header I will find in the reportage of the APC presidential candidate within one week. The other was that ‘the Army confirmed the claim that the original copies of Buhari’s certificates were in its custody’.

Contrary to this skew and slant – what the Army said was a mere reiteration and assumption of public service standard rule namely that copies of employees certificates are kept and filed away in the employee’s file.

The Army spokesman never said we checked and found Buhari’s certificates in his file and they couldn’t have found the missing documents otherwise this controversy would have been laid to rest with a simple categorical statement; and Buhari himself or the APC could have sent a clerical staff to retrieve the certified true copy from the Army records’ office.

Now back to Obasanjo and the PTF. The paramount observation that emerges from the former president’s clarification was his extreme indulgence of Buhari, bending overly backwards to express a personal obligation to exonerate a man whose conduct he found ‘fishy’. The suspect even admitted ‘I will not say that what they have said (the PTF report) is correct or not correct’.

How do you establish a suspect’s innocence from “I called my brother and colleague (Buhari), I said see this and he said ‘look we are managing billions of naira and I tried to make sure I see everything. But I will not say that what they have said about this is correct or not correct. But I can assure you, I tried to see everything’. I said okay Muhammadu, between me, you and God, was there any personal benefit for you? And you said no’. I said that is the end of the matter!”

Culpability or lack of it in public service is not established on the basis of whether the president believes you or not and as a matter of fact it is in serious breach of public service standards to establish innocence or culpability on the basis of private exchange of confidences.

And this is precisely the kind of individualised and double standards (where Buhari is concerned) that attracted this observation in this column a week ago “The tragedy here is the seeming predisposition of substantial segment of the Nigerian society to acquiesce and condone (and sometimes celebrate!) this (Buhari) woolly headed and condescending impunity; one law for Buhari and another for the rest of us”.

The affairs of the Nigerian state cannot be reduced to a matter of personal benevolence between a mentor and his protégé. If a president finds something fishy in the conduct of any agency of government what you do is establish a dispassionate (judicial) commission of inquiry to ascertain the truth or otherwise of the alleged questionable conduct.

And to think that the personality who was being so indulged was a leader who never showed an iota of goodwill to people whom his own military tribunals had exonerated of all charges. I refer to the conduct of Buhari as military head of state and crave the indulgence of Professor Wole Soyinka to press him to service once again:

“Recall, if you please, the judicial processes undergone by the septuagenarian Chief Adekunle Ajasin. He was arraigned and tried before Buhari’s punitive tribunal but acquitted. Dissatisfied, Buhari ordered his re-trial. Again, the tribunal could not find this man guilty of a single crime, so once again he was returned for trial, only to be acquitted of all charges of corruption or abuse of office. Was Chief Ajasin thereby released? No! He was ordered detained indefinitely, simply for the crime of winning an election and refusing to knuckle under Shagari’s reign of terror.”

Obasanjo’s technical cover up re-echoes a similar predisposition by Buhari’s successor who interdicted and censured the investigative report into the countertrade policy because it indicted his immediate predecessor in office. Is this what the fabled espirit de corp is all about?

All this, of course, now pales into insignificance relative to the personal integrity scandal over the shady and catch me if you can stonewall of the APC presidential candidate in regard of his inability to produce his credentials or its authentication.

Here, Nigeria, especially the younger generation who do not have a personal adult recollection of Buhari’s erstwhile stint in office, is lucky that they now have an evidence – not blinkered by the passage of time, the sympathetic mediation of institutional colleagues and friends and the filter of the colluding propaganda of media savvy party platforms and associates. They are being conspicuously presented an opportunity to have a rounded real life education on the kind of personality the APC presidential candidate truly is; and how his hypocrisy dovetails into that of his political party.

Following the evasive tactic of his party’s presidential candidate, this was the response of the party’s publicity secretary, Lai Mohammed, to the scandal: “What is more and frankly speaking it does not appear the PDP is getting the best of advice from its members. They ought to realise that challenging Buhari’s education is a self-indictment on the party itself. The man contested election in 2003, 2007 and 2011 and under the same PDP-controlled INEC and he has repeatedly told them the same thing – go to the Army.”

Is this the best response option (for any honest Nigerian) when your integrity is called to question? In my evaluation, Buhari has not responded the way a man of integrity should respond when his integrity is called to question. A man of integrity should not seek shield and protection in dubious legalism in preference to the observance of full disclosure.

This is certainly a most bizarre manner of responding to the resolution of an issue that requires of Buhari and his party nothing more demanding than a simple request to the Army for the (speculation ending) release of the mysterious credentials. The only logical deduction from this stonewalling is that the certificates, especially the secondary school leaving certificate, do not exist.

How do we reconcile this moral regression with the image of the purported puritanical crusader who had people shot for drug peddling under a retroactive decree? Who harassed, detained and humiliated moral icons like the late Dr. Tai Solarin, an asthmatic, whom he denied access to his medications; who ransacked and surrounded Awolowo’s residence with Army troops for the duration of his incumbency as military head of state; from whose gulags notable politicians like Ambrose Alli and Bisi Onabanjo emerged to die a premature death; where Ayo Ojewumi went blind and followed suit.

The truth is that anyone who bothers to critically study the Buhari personae would always found his trumpet integrity suspect and the current certificate saga is only the latest in the long list of internal contradictions that demystifies him of any shred of lingering integrity myth.

Aribisala wrote of him in his vanguard newspaper column “A man should know at what age he went to school, but Buhari does not seem to know.  If Buhari started school at 11 and he joined the army at the age of 19 in January 1962; that means it took him only eight years to finish primary and secondary school.  That is not feasible.  It would appear that, instead of completing school, Buhari opted to join the army.”

President Barack Obama entered all the requisite information on his eligibility to contest for the office of the American president including the fact that he was born in America. At no time did he swear to an affidavit that the original copy of his birth certificate was in the custody of any America public institution as a cover up excuse – yet he responded to the (far right) orchestrated scepticism on the true identity of his birthplace by publicly displaying the long form original copy of his birth record.

The APC candidate has been contesting for a similar office since 2003 yet all he could provide is a sworn affidavit that his certificates are in the custody of his former employers – whose retrieval has become a task beyond him and his political party.

And just like the eminent Obasanjo was worried years ago over the conduct of Buhari at the PTF, there is equally something ‘fishy’ about the self-willed inability of his ‘brother and colleague’ to come clean on the missing credentials.

The present excuse makes no sense, absolutely no sense. Can anyone think of any earthly reason why the Army, if truly the certificates

RE: DELTA EPZ AND MATTERS ARISING; MY TAKE IS ON JUSTICE, EQUITY AND FAIRNESS

So much has been said about the $16 Billion Export Processing zone(EPZ)which is meant to galvanize Nigeria’s economic growth through adequate gas processing and supply, using our dear Delta State as the hub.

For one, I am happy as a Deltan that this laudable project is being planned and nurtured in my time, especially on the heels of our fight for the need by government to industrialize and enhance our economic well-being in the oil-rich Niger Delta Region.

Nonetheless, I am not persuaded by the nebulous and loudly-echoed ‘economic and industrial gains’ slogan being orchestrated by some forces hiding under the EPZ Project to re-launch a back-door move for the acquisition of lands belonging to the people of Gbaramatu Kingdom in Warri South-West Local Government Area of Delta State. In this regard, I stand on the side of my people as I have always done, to ensure that the voice of reason was raised and heard by the powers that be. As a peace-loving Kingdom, the people of Gbaramatu had used all civil and legal means to ensure that justice was done by the federal government by not going ahead with the planned ground-breaking ceremony in the face of clear injustice, unfairness and inequity.

As a result, many insinuations and perverted comments have been made by both interested and rented parties to the effect that ethnic colourations have been brought to the fore by linking the justifiable postponement of the ground- breaking to President Goodluck Jonathan’s ‘soft-spot’ for the Ijaws of Gbaramatu Kingdom.

It should be noted however, that the struggle of the people Gbaramatu Kingdom for both political and economic rights pre-dates the Jonathan Presidency. History is replete with courses of events as far as the struggle of the oppressed people of Gbaramatu Kingdom is concerned. It is no longer news to all that our Itsekiri neighbours, using all advantages of being in government and power since the time of former governor, Chief James Ibori(whose mother is Itsekiri) as well as the incumbent governor, Dr Emmanuel Uduaghan(also an Itsekiri) who both as commissioner and later Secretary to State Government under Ibori, cannot insulate himself from the calculated attempt by the government-backed Itsekiri’s attempts to enslave Gbaramatu Kingdom.

It should therefore be placed on record that if the belief of the people of Gbaramatu Kingdom in their just and fairs struggle saw them through thick and thin since the time of Ibori till date, the same spirit still lives on; and such does not need the ‘soft spot’of a Nigerian President of Ijaw extraction to take the people to their rightful place. It was (still) this belief in a just and fair struggle that in spite of glaring attempts by both Ibori (then) and Uduaughan (now) to exterminate the Gbaramatu Kingdom to the advantage of their kinsmen, I made conscious efforts to respect the institution they represent. In essence, I refrained from abusing their persons as some Itsekiri leaders have mindlessly done in the case of the postponement of the ground-breaking ceremony by the President.

Perhaps, it is unfortunate to note that all those Itsekiri leaders, especially Pa J.O. Ayomike who betrayed uncontrollable and misplaced sentiments by abusing the person of the president and calling for his resignation would have achieved better things and indeed, much development would have come to their impoverished Itsekiri villages if such energy was deployed to ginger their son, who is now governor, to bring development to their areas. The Ayomikes of this world should rather be expressing worry and bury their heads in shame that the over 12 years of their sons in government and power in Delta State are more of curses than blessings to their people. The case of those vilifying President Jonathan is that of bottled-up anger and transferred aggression ordinarily targeted at those who looked the other way in the face of the sufferings of their people to a man who tried to do justice by listening to all sides of an issue.

WHAT DOES FESTUS KEYAMO WANT?
This question has become imperative in view of the rented roles the Lagos-based Lawyer has played in the last couple of weeks in the affairs of the state especially as they relate to the people of Gbaramatu Kingdom in Warri South-West Local Government Area of Delta State. Before now, I had seen Keyamo as a young promising lawyer whose passion to fight oppression was unquenchable. I see him as a brother and friend because there is still time for him to stratify rented and commercialized struggle from passionate human and civil rights crusade. As a matter of fact, Keyamo’s continuous linkage with me to purported attempts close crime is unacceptable to me. At best, Keyamo knows too well that those whose fair for injustice I fight against, those who have been severally linked to murders in Delta State who today are his latter-day friends, are not men of conscience. As a human rights lawyer (as claimed by Keyamo), his efforts to unearth the killers of Onokpite Ogbe were applauded by many, including me. I was even tempted to disbelieve others when accusations of ‘unpalatable practices’ trailed Keyamo’s sudden u-turn to abandon the Onokpite’s case. But today, I have no reason to disbelieve such against the backdrop of Keyamo’s role in the orchestrated EPZ Crisis. In the face of Keyamo’s sudden u-turn in character, it is absurd to ask him if would have not have done what I did on behalf of my people should he find himself in my shoes. I therefore find very curious Keyamo’s attempt to demonize me especially when it is obvious that since I willingly embraced the Federal Government Amnesty offer, I have selflessly, at high risks too, contributed to the enhancement of peace and security in the entire Niger- Delta Region. I will therefore urge Keyamo to be on the side of truth and justice rather than being on the side of injustice because conscience is an open wound, only the truth can heal it.

CONCLUSION
My appeal to all men of conscience is to ensure that justice and fairness are made the cornerstone of human existence. Where these do not exist, it will be difficult for society to make progress. The case of the plight of the people of Gbaramatu Kingdom in Warri South-West Local Government Area of Delta is clear and unambiguous. The precepts for injustice and ingredients of inequality are daily being planted by those who find themselves in positions of authority and influence, especially in Delta State.

It should therefore be known that those who deliberately drag the name of President Jonathan into this blackmail game are doing this to perpetuate injustice. This is the crux of the matter. But little do they know that the struggle has been an age-long one, pre-dating the president’s ascendancy to office and through the will of God, my people have been forging ahead. In the same vein, the struggle might also post-date President Jonathan unless the issues of injustice that have continually set the Gbaramatu and Itsekiri ethnic nationalities against each are permanently resolved. The Gabramatu people cannot be intimidated by any resort to blackmail,using ethnic cards.

Similarly, I will not succumb to any cheap blackmail aimed at weakening my resolve to fight for my people because this is a matter of conscience and posterity. I shall not waiver even in the face of threat and intimidation of all sorts until justice is done.

Thanks and God bless

SIGNED:
HIGH CHIEF GOVERNMENT EKPEMUPOLO

BRICK HOUSE 2015: THE OPTIONS LEFT FOR THE KALABARIS – By Fortune God’sSon Alfred

@Elmagnificento1

With current happenings in the political firmament of Rivers State, the Kalabaris and most Rivers Ijaws are now left with only three options which they must as a matter of urgency apply or forget about the Brick House for the next Four or possibly Eight years to come.

Just last week, we were inundated by reports that 16 Gubernatorial Candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state, majority of whom are Kalabaris protested against the Party Leadership’s handling of the Party’s ward Congresses in the state. The reason for the protest was not unconnected with the believe (or should we say knowledge) that the Congresses were skewed to favour the immediate past Minister of State for Education, Chief Barrister Nyensom E. Wike, whom the First Lady, an Ijaw woman, appears to be backing.

In a related but somewhat unconnected development, the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the State has zoned its Gubernatorial Ticket to Rivers South-East Senatorial District which is made up of four Ogoni local government areas: Khana, Gokana, Eleme and Tai, as well as Oyigbo, Andoni and Opobo/Nkoro.

The party based its decision on what it described as agitation of the people of the District to produce Governor Rotimi Amaechi’s successor, to end what they called an injustice, lack of equity and fairness to the area. In truth, that area has not produced a Governor since the State was created in 1967.

This decision now narrows the APC ticket battle to two of Amaechi allies, namely the incumbent Senator representing the District, Magnus Ingei Abe who is from Bera-Ogoni, in Gokana Local Government Area (upland) and House of Representatives Member, Hon. Dakuku Peterside who is a native of Opobo Town, the headquarters of Opobo/Nkoro LGA (riverine). It is instructive to note that despite what some will tell you today, Rivers State politics has always revolve around an Upland-Riverine Dichotomy. Thus, If Sen. Abe clinches the ticket and eventually wins the general election, then it means a continuation of Upland rule for at least another four years in the state. However, if Hon. Petersides wins, it means a shift of the balance of power to the Riverine areas of the state for the first time since 1999.

With this scenario in play, it is clear that the Kalabaris cannot afford to move to the APC as there is nothing for them there too. So this now leaves us with the N2.8Billion question, viz: what are the options available for the Kalabaris? Let’s go into that.

As I said in my opening sentence, the Kalabaris are left with 3 Options. These are: 1. Unite; 2. Fight to Win the PDP Ticket and Structures; and 3. Move en mass to a Third Political Party. Now, let me break this three points (options) down.

1. UNITY OF PURPOSE: The Kalabari Aspirants must come together to form a common front. A situation where many Kalabari sons are running for the same position at the same time will not do their corporate interest any good. This is not the time for ego trips and to compete on whose ‘Etibo’ or Hat is finer, or who has more pedigree and other trivialities.

The Candidates of Kalabari origin that have expressed interest to run for the Brick House may all be fine and accomplished gentlemen in their individual right, however, going individually against Chief Barrister Nyensom Wike is not a smart move. This is because the large number of Kalabaris already in the race will divide the loyalties and votes of the Delegates, while Wike who stands alone will patiently wait like a Vulture to reap from that confusion.

Wike might not look or talk like your ideal 21st century Guber candidate. He may look and talk more like a refined and well packaged Chairman of the Rivers State chapter of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW). Yet don’t underestimate his mastery of Rivers Politics. Why should you even underrate the Rivers. NURTW Chairman? One of Wike’s guys in PHALGA, Chief Honourable Azubuike Emeregini rose from his post as NURTW to become the Mayor of Port Harcourt. You underrate Wike at your own peril. Ask Gov Amaechi.

While Gov Amaechi was busy ‘breaking Egusi’ in Government, Wike, who’s based in Abuja, was able to build his Grassroot development Initiative (GDI) structure in Rivers State under the former’s nose. So you see, contrary to what Governor Amaechi will have you believe, Wike is not a “small boy”.

Those with  keen eye to observe and discern the happenings in the state especially the rise of Wike from a Local Government Chairman to a de facto Minister of Education and the new Bulldozer of Rivers State Politics that even the old Bulldozer now follows will know that he is not a push over. In fact, he has become to man to beat in this race.

So the Kalabaris best bet at victory is to concentrate their forces and pull their resources together to form a common front. In more succinct language, they have to settle for a sole Candidate that will be backed by all others to go into the campaign. Failure to do so will be perilous and costly. After this task is accomplished, then we can turn to our second option.

2. REMAIN IN THE PEOPLE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO FIGHT FOR THE FLAG

Having succeeded in forming a Kalabari Common Front, the next option is to pull all resources together to clinch the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ticket.

Historically, since 1999, the winner of the PDP Gubernatorial Primaries eventually becomes the Governor of Rivers State. The reason for this should not be farfetched. The PDP has a strong war chest, a battle tested election winning strong political structure in the state that has continued to mill out Governors in the state since the return to Civil Rule.  Losing the PDP would prove a most costly loss at this stage of the electioneering campaign considering how many more months are left before the Election Day.

Nevertheless, if all efforts at winning the PDP ticket fail because Chief Wike is able to commandeer the party structures, then this will leave them with our option number 3.

3. MASS EXODUS TO A THIRD POLITICAL PARTY: Nobody’s umbilical cord was buried in the Aba Road offices or the Wadata House, Abuja National Head Office of the PDP. Thus, if it becomes clear that the Consensus Kalabari Candidate would lose out in the struggle for the PDP Flag in the forthcoming PDP Primary election, then, the inevitable thing for them to do is to move en mass to a third political Party.

The choice of a third political party will be necessitated by the fact that both the APC and the PDP must have been foreclosed to their candidate by such a time. Already the zoning of the APC ticket to Rivers South-East Senatorial District has driven the final nail to the casket of any hopes of a Kalabari flag bearer in that party.

As the clock ticks, each passing second takes us closing to the 2015 Gubernatorial election in the State. So, time is of the essence today.

Whether Rivers State will be government by a Kalabari man from 2015 will be determined by which of these try options they properly apply. However, the foregoing should not be interpreted as an Iron Law that cannot be altered.

In the final analysis, the political dexterity of the actors and the will of the electorate will be the final arbiter of who gets what when and how in Rivers State come next year.

All, FGA could do now is wish all parties Goodluck and hope that they have the patience needed to win.

Fortune God’sSon Alfred is a Public Policy Analyst cum Political/Media Strategist who tweets via @Elmagnificento1