In the UK, China accounts for 44% of growth in the international postgraduate market. Photograph: Rii Schroer/Rex Features
Claire Shaw and Rebecca Ratcliffe
Tuesday 7 October 2014 07.00 BST
Nigeria will soon overtake India to become the UK’s second biggest source of international postgraduate students, according to research compiled by the British Council.
Forecasting by the organisation suggests that the UK will host 241,000 postgraduate international students by 2024, allowing it to remain one of the top two destinations for studying a postgrad abroad – second only to the US.
But researchers warn the UK is too dependent on China for its international numbers, and that it is losing out on Indian students. Demographic changes mean India’s appetite for higher education is expanding quickly and providing a source of international postgrad students that the US is exploiting.
While in the UK, China accounts for 44% of growth in the international postgraduate market, this figure stands at 33% in the US. More than half (54%) of the US’ international students arrive from India – which, by 2024, will be home to the largest tertiary-aged population, numbering over 119 million.
“No single market should drive the growth and composition of a country’s incoming postgraduate body,” said Zainab Malik, director of research for British Council education intelligence. “As such, it is essential for institutions and policy-makers to continue to attract students from expanding economies besides China and India, including Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam.”
The study forecasts that the annual growth rate of the UK’s international postgraduate numbers will dip over the next 10 years, falling 4.1% during the period 2007-12 to 3.5% between 2013-24. This means the UK’s international postgraduate market will grow more slowly than the US, Canada and Australia.
The predictions for the next decade were generated by researchers who examined the demographic and economic data for 23 origin countries and six destination countries, as well as examining historical trends. The study did not look at the impact of specific political factors such as visa arrangements.
Whats happening to other destinations – and who will be leading the way by 2024?
Australia and Canada are forecast to have the highest annual average growth rate of international postgraduate students, at 4.1% each.
China is expected to account for 44% of growth in international postgraduate students going to study in the UK.
Over half (54%) of the US’ growth in international postgraduate students is expected to come from India.
In absolute terms, the US is set to be the fastest-growing destination for international postgraduate students over the next decade, with an increase of 154,000 students expected by 2024. The UK is set to see an increase of 83,000, Australia 42,000 and Germany 39,000.
The UK is expected to be the second-slowest growing nation, with an annual growth rate of 3.5% from 2012 to 2024, which is only ahead of Japan.
Why is demand for postgraduate degrees increasing?
Countries around the world are recognising the important role that education plays in creating a skilled workforce that meets the needs of industry and employers. As a result, there has been a huge increase in undergraduate enrolment the world over. The ever-changing marketplace has allowed for the growth of emerging economies, particularly in Asia, where students are looking to gain the qualifications they need to better their chances of getting a skilled job. This increase in undergraduate students has had a knock on effect, and seen more graduates applying for higher-level study.
Some countries are actively fuelling this enrolement growth, such as Australia, which saw an increase of more than 5% in the first two years of the policy since it lifted the cap on student numbers in 2012. And the UK is set to do the same next year. Universities too, are having a big impact. Since research output plays an increasingly important role in determining university funding and where they are ranked in the world, universities are looking to expand their talent pool by recruiting postgrad students.
Although a large proportion of international students is still expected to come from China, the number of postgraduate students elsewhere who are looking to study overseas is increasing rapidly. The growth rate of internationally mobile postgraduate students is especially high in Nigeria ( 8.3%) India ( 7.5%), Indonesia ( 7.2%), Pakistan ( 6.4%) and Saudi Arabia ( 5.2%).
Culled from: the guardian (UK)